Friday, December 7, 2012

Futures

Here are the charts. There are two things that I'm looking at/for, 1) I want to see the divergence that was so strong this week it kicked up a huge red flag and had me scrambling to figure out which assets to keep, which to close and which to open; has lost its strength. If the divergence kept building then I would have to assume there was a change in institutional thinking and instead of taking the market lower, they were furiously buying, completely changing our tend expectations, so we are good on that front.

The second thing, just enough accumulation to make that pop higher that is best represented by the range in the Russell 2000 or IWM. That too was fine.

Something that was interesting was the pre-NFP accumulation, like I said, it wasn't the kind that was so large it would take all day to distribute, it was enough to make good money on a pop higher and if you have an HFT that can send out 2000 trades a second, you can unwind the trade very quickly.


 ES (SPX Futures) 1 min with a huge positive divergence leading to the NFP print this morning sending the market blasting higher, that was accumulated as prices moved lower right to th last minute t 8:29 a.m.

 ES 5 min chart, overall this was the chart that was so strong I almost panicked Tuesday, to make sure nothing fundamental has changed with trend assumptions it was important this chart deteriorated, it ended the week leading negative so check there!


 Looking at the same 5 min chart on an intraday basis, even though it's in leading negative position, the fact is on an intraday basis we have  leading positive showing us someone is getting ready for some move, it can't be all that strong (unless accumulation from earlier in the week was also held), but I expect as I said last night, a quick up and back down to a new low. The leading negative is the larger trend and that represents the move to the downside, but intraday as long as there is more money flow with 3C moving up vs another relative area, there is some money flowing in to the asset.

 I REALLY wanted to see the 15 min chart deteriorate because it's a stronger timeframe, carries bigger implication and it did so with a leading negative divergence today.

 Zoom in and we can see a leading positive divergence in the afternoon and after the initial selling after the NFP, there really wasn't any distribution as 3C moved with price.

 This is a 1 min of the EUR/USD pair, you can see the negative left over from the decline yesterday and a positive finding a bottom in the pair, a smaller negative divergence that cause EUR/USD to consolidate most of the day and then a leading positive divergence in to the close.

 NASDAQ Futures (NQ) 1 min, also showing a leading positive divergence this morning running in to the NFP print, if you looked at price lone you'd never know anything was happening, but someone was accumulating and then selling quickly in to the price spike, only HFTs can sell that fast.

 The 5 min NQ chart deteriorated as I hoped it would after seeing accumulation earlier in the week.

 The 5 min NQ on an intraday basis shows a leading positive divergence and accumulation in to the afternoon.

The NQ 15 min chart, I was a bit worried about the leading positive divergence here yesterday, luckily it started to break down yesterday and today it fell more, however even on this chart without zoom you can see the leading positive divergence today.

Here's the 15 min NQ chart, also showing respectable accumulation through a leading positive divergence this afternoon.

I'll post more as I run across interesting or useful charts, but for those of you who have  life after 4 p.m. on Friday, I wish you a fantastic weekend!

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