The Labor Department says there's nothing unusual about a big 38,000 increase to 368,000 in initial jobless claims for last week, but the jump is the second large swing in three weeks which makes the report a less-than-reliable gauge for the monthly employment report. A look at the four-week average, which helps smooth out big swings, does hint at slight improvement. The latest average of 352,000 is down about 7,000 from a month ago.
Continuing claims also moved higher, up 22,000 in data for the January 19 week to 3.197 million.
Emergency Unemployment Compensation was a big negative as well. After last week's record-breaking plunge of over 350k, this week saw a surge of over 418k added to the EUC rolls - the biggest 2-week jump in two months.
This was followed by Chicago PMI
Released On 1/31/2013 9:45:00 AM For Jan, 2013
| Prior | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | |
| Business Barometer Index - Level | 51.6 | 50.5 | 46.7 to 52.5 | 55.6 |
Here we saw the biggest beat since September of 2011, which is truly strange on the face of it as 4 F_E_D diffusion indicies and other manufacturing data have been the absolute opposite of this print. However part of the massive beat (beyond consensus) from the prior of 51.6 is that the prior was revised lower as apart of an end of year adjustment all the way down to 48.9.
So you can trust the 4 F_E_D regional surveys and other data or chose to believe the Chicago PMI saw a 6.7 point jump, from contraction last month to a massive beat this month, a little volatile for my tastes-take the employment component, it was up 11.2 points to 58, again fro contraction to a massive hiring boom, yet Initial Claims misses?
The respondents section of the report was much more pessimistic than the print.
Next we'll be looking at actual price action, underlying trade and as I suspected two days ago, precious metals, Gold in particular.
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