The market as of now as compared to my earlier expectations is dull and weaker than I'd have thought, however as mentioned yesterday, perhaps the smoking gun wasn't at all in the short term charts I normally pay attention to for timing issues, but in fact the ugly negative momentum in the longer charts which are more important anyway.
This is the general tone of the market this morning, which has been quite dull even in the TICK data, barely wondering outside of the average of flat trade in the +/-500 to 750 range.
Intraday trade is quite flat, no better than in line in most every situation so I looked deeper to see if there was a surprise building somewhere, here's more or less what was found in all of the averages with some slight variations, but the theme is the same...
SPY 10 min chart is an excellent example of the longer charts' seeing EXTREME momentum, this is down even for today.
SPY 15 min, a total shift
The same chart within the context of the entire November 16th cycle with trend #1 higher in price, but at new leading negative lows which actually fits perfectly with the dovetail in to trend 2, it's price that keeps you from visualizing the horror that is the underlying trade.
SPY 30 min with EXTREME momentum, again, I believe these charts are the smoking gun, they are moving very fast with a lot of momentum and it's simply unnatural even in the context of a strong distribution trend.
DIA 60 min chart is amazingly horrible.
QQQ 10 min and note the increase in downside momentum since the head fake day above resistance.
The accumulation (of trend #1) on a 30 min QQQ chart that preceded the breakaway to the upside of trend #1. Looking at the leading negative divergence that is broken with trendlines illustrates how the first section would be bad enough, add the second section and it is stunning.
The only thing I found with any short term strength this morning was the IWM which was hit the hardest yesterday, but even that faded in to a negative divergence late morning.
IWM 2 min confirming the negative divergence as well
IWM 10 min chart's horrible leading downside yesterday.
As I said earlier in the week, Monday I believe, each market has its own character, but there was something Monday in the 3C signals that was beyond just a negative divergence, price itself seemed to be climbing a wall of fear, almost like trying to walk up a sand dune as the sands below your feet are slipping.
If we are to get some upside, I doubt there will be much 3C strength behind it, even on the shortest and most insignificant of timeframes.
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