Thursday, January 31, 2013

For Perspective

There's a fine line between getting the best and most timely entry and just getting too greedy. If your risk management is up to snuff, you should be able to enter any trade in this area and be able to sit through any short term drawn down, if you are throwing 50/% of your portfolio behind 1 position, then you really need to read the risk management link at the top right of the site or get in touch with me.

Here's some SPY, UPRO and SPXU perspective, I'm having a REALLY hard time justifying just sitting still and being patient with signals like this.

For a SPX short, personally I'd go with SPXU, but that may be too much leverage for some of you, if you can't sit through the corrections, then you shouldn't use that kind of leverage because you'll get kicked out of a good trade because your trade has too much risk for your risk tolerance, there's nothing wrong with low risk tolerance, you just have to trade accordingly.


SPY
 The intraday charts have enough congestion it doesn't seem like a downside move is imminent, but look how fast the TICK just dropped and went from +250 NYSE stocks up to more than a thousand trading down in 3 minutes.

 SPY 3 min still looks congested, still like it could put in a little more downside and maybe even grow a little more bullish

 At 5 mins there is equilibrium

 At 10 min charts, it's clearly turned negative

 30 min, forget about it, I don't see this market coming back, it may look that way short term because of volatility, but that's enormous damage done.

3X Bull SPX-UPRO
 10 min, damage

 30 min, insane damage

SPXU 3x leveraged BEAR SPX
 5 min positive

 15 min very positive, extreme momentum

30 min, speaks for itself.

This is a very personal choice.

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