AMZN Update

Since I have several emails about AMZN, I figured I'd just post it. It's making a new high today like many stocks and the Russell 2k did last week. AMZN on the longer timeframes and even intermediate still has very negative divergences so the strategic view is negative on AMZN, the important part now is taking advantage of the price strength in line with our strategic view and I call that the tactical view or the entry. As for the entry for new or add to positions, as of this moment we are not there, but AMZN is not that far away it would appear.

This may be a part of an earnings play as well, we'll have to see what the charts look like closer to earnings, for now though here's the basic break down of the strategic to tactical.

 The longer term view with AMZN in a stable uptrend or stage 2 mark-up in green for a +425% gain, in yellow the volatility starts to get a little wild, this is often a sign of a stock moving from stage 2 (the easy money) to stage 3(distribution/top). As you can se since the volatility has crept in, AMZN has about a 67% return.

 This almost looks like a large H&S top and it could be, but all H&S tops start out as Broadening tops first. It's hard to confirm a H&S top here with volume as volume has been declining throughout the entire market.

 The longer term strategic charts like this 2 hour suggest AMZN is under distribution as it is nin a new leading negative divergence.

 I'm not posting al timeframes as it is redundant, but here at an intermediate 15 min chart, this recent high (which would be a head and a H&S pattern) is showing a larger negative divergence than at the area that would be considered the left shoulder, so this is in line with a H&S or Broadening top. Whatever it is, the move higher in price has a worse negative divergence suggesting much heavier distribution.

 I don't know why this chart didn't load above the 15 min, but the 30 min chart is showing the same thing (this is more important than the 15 min chart), lower 3C highs at higher AMZN highs, a leading negative divergence through this entire pattern.

 Very short term and closer to intraday, we have some confirming 3C readings, mostly on the 1-3 min, but zoomed out to their trends, it's a different story.

 For instance the 3 min shows a negative divergence and then accumulation right in to that last Friday before the entire market popped higher the next Monday, coincidence? I highly doubt it as we see it everywhere. However the 3 in trend is not confirming the move higher.

At 5 min we see the positive divergence that started the cycle off the 11/16 lows, again just like the rest of the market.

At this point we have more than enough longer term data suggesting heavy AMZN distribution, we just need short term charts to give strong tactical entry signals, I suspect they will follow the broader market.

I'll keep an eye on AMZN as I want to add here and get a piece of AMZN at these prices.