HLF Follow Up

This was a potential short squeeze trade, many of you made quick hit and run profits on this, but a real short squeeze never materialized, I realize HLF is a fair bit higher, but not typical short squeeze. There were at least 3 major players short HLF and they made it publicly known, which is what bother me and made me thing there's a set up going on here, pros would never volunteer their positions without being forced to or having a good reason to. If people think HLF is going to be hit by a short squeeze they are going to buy, when they buy they are creating demand and doing it in to higher prices.

I have suspected the original players are shorting in to this move and plan on riding HLF lower, the short squeeze trade just gave them demand to sell in to, at least that's the way I see it, volume certainly doesn't argue against that idea.

So we've been watching HLF for a potential short entry, we may be getting close to one, take a look at the updated charts.

 First the market via the SPY because this actually has something to do with the HLF set up for a short position. This is the 1 min SPY positive intraday chart, "IF" it had any real strength behind it that strength would migrate out to longer charts like the 2 min, 3 min, 5 min, etc and they would be positive, but...

 As you can see by the SPY 2 min chart, there is no such strength (at least as of now and that's the data). This still suggests 1 of 2 thins, a continued consolidation area or a move to the upside which is what I would expect of the market unless they did everything they needed to do during the last 30 mins of Friday. If the 2 min chart were positive, I'd say a move up is almost inevitable.


 Now HLF's 2 min chart shows a strong positive divergence at the very lows of HLF, there was a ton of volume there and I suspect these 3 institutional shorts covered right there at the lows and then started talking about their short in HLF. As it has moved higher the 2 min chart has grown more and more leading negative, now there's a range and this is where we most often see divergences, there's a reason for that, think; "Filling orders and VWAP".

 The 1 min chart today only went negative at the opening highs, the rest of the day it has been in line.

 The 10 min chart is now also leading negative.


 As is the 5 min which uploaded incorrectly, it should be above the 10 min.

 Even the 15 min is going leading negative now. This is migration of a divergence, this is how it works.
I'm a bit hesitant to short HLF here in any other size than speculative until/unless the 15 min gets a bit worse and/or something happens that I will describe below.

 The 30 min chart has no long term surprises, it is moving in line with price, if this went negative I'd be interested also. I don't think it is a matter of if, but more when.

We now have a range that has formed, a head fake move above the range with the 15 min and other charts going even more negative would get me to bite, so I'd set some price alerts for that breakout if you re interested in the trade. I'd say we see head fake moves like I'm describing above at least 80% of the time on a reversal, we also see them in every timeframe's reversal and they are typically commensurate is size with the trend and timeframe.

So if you are interested, I'd be watching for that move and if the market can make a move higher above Friday's highs, that may help HLF to make its move.

I'd keep it on the radar as I have suspected this one is being set up since I heard them talking about their position there.