Monday, January 7, 2013

FB Charts

These charts were captured about an hour ago or so, so any changes to them and I'll notate under the chart.

As you know we were one of the only groups of traders to catch the first FB move up while everyone hated FB and we also called the longer term base and move on that. FB is unique in that it can trade independent from the market in most cases, but here it seems it is starting to correlate more with the market.

 In early August we saw a slight move up and said it would be slight, but added that there was a very strong potential for FB to build a larger base from which to rally from, you can see that at the white arrow, this is a large base area and I believe ultimately FB can make a bigger upside move, however I'm concerned about the more immediate future.

 TheVERY influential 2 hour chart with a huge leading positive divergence in the base area, this is exceptionally strong longer term and it is in line with price thus far.

 It is more immediate problems I see for FB, this yellow area I believe to be a head fake breakout, there was accumulation for it at the white arrow, but once again, GUESS THE DATE! In to the breakout there's no confirmation, just a relative negative divergence.

 The 15 min chart shows accumulation back in August where we first said to watch for a base in FB, then a leading positive divergence, however in to the recent move above local resistance we have relative negative divergences, leading me to think this is likely a head fake breakout. A pullback would be welcome, I'd consider buying FB again if there were accumulation on a pullback.

*This chart is currently a little closer to in line with price, however if it was zoomed out a bit more you'd see how negative this chart really is. The current 3C reading is below the 11/12 FB lows.


 FB 5 min is showing 3C in line with price at the green arrow and then as it breaks above local resistance (just as the SPY did and other averages) then we have a leading negative divergence, it seems like that breakout was used to sell/ sell short in to.

*currently the 5 min chart is in a little worse shape


 I said earlier there might be a better intraday entry, we went negative at the a.m. highs and started working on a positive divergence.

*Currently the 1 min 3C chart went up a bit higher, but failed to surpass the negative divergence, meaning it's still negative.

 The 3 min chart however has been leading negative all day, this is a stronger signal and the more important for the bigger picture.

The 5 min is leading negative also at the same area as the breakout took place. Don't just look at the signals and read "breakout", think about why there are negative signals at a supposedly bullish event.

*As mentioned, the 5 min chart is now in worse shape moving toward  a new leading negative low for this chart.

This is more of a trade, I still like FB long term and if it does show positive divergences in to a pullback/correction I'd likely buy it.

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