We did have some members make some money on the upside when we first looked at this as a short squeeze trade, but it never really acted like a short squeeze (price moves up intraday with almost no pullbacks typically on very light volume).
My question now is whether Ackman, Einhorn and Tilson (the 3 major short players) are actually caught in the short or did they have a part in the play with Loeb? I consider Loeb to be way more sophisticated than Tilson and kind of doubt he'd have anything going on with Tilson, so is it possible Tilson and Ackman really committed the sin of telling the investing world that they were short for some other reason that back-fired on them? Perhaps they thought it would bring in retail shorts as well? I really don't know if they're still in and every assumption before today was based on incomplete knowledge such as Loeb owning a big chunk of HLF. Did Loeb run a Jesse Livermore-like (reverse as Livermore was the bear in the raid) raid on the bears?
The short interest in HLF is still around 26 million at last report.
In any case, here are a few interesting charts and this is why I prefer to wait for confirmation with real signals.
The original distribution in to that move higher of over 9% in I believe 5 seconds has shifted now to an in line status or 3C / price trend confirmation. I'm nearly sure an algo headline scanning HFT picked up on the news and that's what that move was all about, I wouldn't be surprised if Nanex releases the transaction details which would be very interesting to see just to see how 3C works with High Frequency Trades, here it seemed to works well.
This is the odd spot I have mentioned several times, this could have been Ackman covering or Loeb buying, but this divergence in to the low is typical accumulation (short covering would be read as accumulation).
Remember I said I wanted to wait for confirmation on the 15 min chart, for it to make a new leading negative low? Well it hasn't and in fact is moving the other way. This is why I wait for objective data, even though a short in this area looked to be a near perfect setup, the signal wasn't there and now we know why.
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