Opening Indications

It's the little things, it really is. It's been said many times, "To make money you have to see what the crowd missed" and as I have talked about recently, those things are often the little things, small changes in volume, candlesticks (although those are more mainstream) and yesterday one of the give-aways for short term trade was the Dominant Price/Volume Relationship. I don't think anyone would call this market oversold and the index/volume relationship did not show the same thing as the components of the major averages' Dominant Price/Volume relationship which I posted yesterday as being Price Down/Volume Up- of the 4 possible relationships, this one accounted for nearly half of each average's components. As mentioned, this is taken as a short term oversold condition, like mini-capitulation.

In any case, here's what the opening indications look like so far...

 We are now moving toward the area I'd like to see price break above, this is where we should see some real action, some good signals and high probability trades rather than what we have seen the last few days.


 ES 1 min is not quite confirming this morning, but is making a new high for the week right now.

 The DIA positive divergence was also another signal, it's close to confirming and may do so, but not quite there.

 The IWM longer term chart as mentioned yesterday, a lot of the 5 min charts strengthened yesterday suggesting the averages are more likely to move to that area from Friday.

 This morning however the IWM is one of the poor performers in that it is not confirming yet, I believe there's a good reason for this as you'll see.

 The QQQ is also not confirming this morning as 3C should be in the same area as price.

 The SPY is moving toward confirmation, but not quite there.

Here's where I see some early trouble and it may pass, it likely will pass, but the TICK data is showing some weakness.

For a new high on the week in ES, I'd expect the TICK to be hitting +1250 to +1500, it's barely broken +1000 and it is also diverging to the downside away from the price trend so I'd expect an early pullback unless the TICK data can get its act together and we get more stocks advancing and keeping pace with the market.

It's very early so I'm not concerned right now, we are headed in the right direction, we'll just keep an eye on everything.