Opening Indications

You may recall from last night's post and yesterday's updates, that the market is kind of scattered in a short term sense, almost like rotation, but I don't think that is what it is.

For a quick and dirty look, here's ES which as I pointed out in today's first post, had a pre-market positive divergence, that has helped a bit in early trade...

The positive divergence was around 7 a.m. to 8:30 and has thus far lifted price, although a slight negative now seems to be creating a consolidation. NQ is nearly perfectly in line with price, it doesn't have the same positive as ES above.

Here's the really ugly one, the SPY...

 As mentioned in last night's wrap the SPY looked to be the worst of the 4 major averages; it was leading negative at the close on this 1 min chart which price has moved toward this morning, which is how it should behave.

 The 2 min chart is still leading negative in a broader way and price is no where near reverting to that leading negative position.

 The 3 min was and is also leading negative...

 And the 5 min chart-this is what made the SPY the worst as of last night as the other averages had at least 1 chart sprinkled in there that wasn't negative in the early timeframes.

 Of course in my opinion and experience, this 15 min leading negative chart is the real problem, the other ones above are more details of timing, etc, but this is the one that is more of a judgment of where the SPY is heading.



 The DIA this morning has some kind of positive divergence, I'd call it both a relative and leading positive, although it is a bit odd looking. The DIA has work to do on charts after this, but they are not as bad as the SPY, so they are still holding out some chance that Wall St. still controls the short term trade.

The IWM I mentioned had a positive 5 min chart last night, thus it was overall the strongest in the short term. The 1 min chart, considering the noon time damage from yesterday, isn't in much of a worse position this morning so I'd chalk this up as more neutral.

 Here's that IWM positive 5 min from last night's post, this is still rather large and still has decent probabilities to move the IWM higher short term.

 QQQ 1 min had a positive through most of the day yesterday with a closing negative divergence which played out this morning.

 I usually take the 1 min chart to be market makers/Specialists and perhaps HFTs adjusting inventory (HFTs are so fast they have taking over the job of market making in many instances, although they are not legally obliged to do so), I find it interesting that there is a late day adjustment and then this morning's open, it seems to me that they know where the market will open, they can always add the inventory back if needed at this morning's lower prices. So far we are pretty much in line with price here and moving toward the positive.

 You may recall I said the QQQ 1 and 2 min were positive, the 2 min still is; it was the 3 and 5 min QQQ that were negative and still are, although with the decline this a.m., they are closer to in line now than yesterday.

This is the QQQ 3 min, the red box showing a leading negative divergence was yesterday, price is nearly in line.

I don't think Wall St. has lost control over the market yet, so I am not ready to say the sky is falling, although I'd certainly be making preparations and we'll look at some more specific ideas to that end today.