Tonight....

Before the SOTU, BOFA came out with their sentiment indicator saying at a current bullish reading of 9.6/1, it is more bullish than 99% of all readings since 2002. They also said that it is a contrarian sell signal for risk assets and...

" Since 2002 a "sell" signal of 8.0+ was on average followed by a 12% peak-to-trough correction in global equities within three months."

Now, what I noticed, as I watched the speech I saw no movement of any kind in ES, there's still little to no movement in futures, but in currencies, as the speech ended, boy, oh boy have things moved, for example...

As a barometer...

 As you can see, neither the Euro or Dollar has moved much...

 However the EUR/JPY is sinking, since the Euro hasn't moved much this means the JPY is flying high, not good for the carry trade.

The USD/JPY is sinking, since the USD has barely moved it means the JPY/Yen is flying.

A rising Yen is not good news for the market.

Take a look at the carry trade during the rally vs now...

The EUR/JPY chart above means the Japanese Yen has been falling like a rock, this enables the carry trade that finances equity transactions, at leverage of up to 200 to 1, a move like what we are seeing tonight, can be devastating to a carry position, this can be devastating to the stock market as money is pulled to close a carry trade. If this movement to the upside in the Yen keeps up, look for what may be some very fast, severe movement in the stock market.