USO Update

I have mixed feelings about this so I think that while it looks to be worth a shot, the risk management must be there and I'd use a wider stop than normal, the reason being is the currency decimation that's going on, if there's a swift end brought to it and Draghi wins in the ECB, then the price of oil is likely to drop with a higher $USD. I try to go by the signals as I figure there are smarter people than me out there and the signals are those people acting on their opinions. However I still understand the dynamics and would still take some extra pre-cautions.

As for Oil specifically which is very different than Energy as a group, here's USO.

***Update-I put out the last post without charts because it looked like oil was ready to move down and I wanted that information out rather than wasting time capturing, uploading and posting these charts so oil has already started a move lower, I personally would consider waiting or maybe entering a partial position and adding if oil bounces intraday, we can always look at it again if it bounces intraday and make sure everything is still intact***

 USO 1 min leading negative on the gap up

 USO 2 min is actually more of an inline trend, I drew in minor divergences within the trend, below is what it looks like without the minor divergences.

 USO 2 min chart, the recent spring out of the channel look like it doesn't have enough 3C support to hold.

 The 3 min chart shows the same exact concept

 The 15 min chart shows the move up with confirmation, where the negative divergence created a transition and the move down with confirmation and the recent pop out of the channel, once again looking like there's not enough support to hold it,

The 60 min chart is the same concept, confirmation up and down with a negative divergence as the transition in between.

You may want to watch the $USD, yo can watch the intraday using UUP or the daily US Dollar Index, DXY0 (the last character is zero). A falling dollar is supportive of oil prices, a rising dollar puts pressure on oil prices, it's not an exact science as there are many pairs that move the currency correlation, but that's a rough way to confirm. For real time currency pairs you can get them from Think or Swim for free or FX Street http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/currency-charts/

I'll show you next why I'm not keen on Energy as a sector, this not only includes oil, but exploration, other types of energy, transportation or more broadly, "Services" so it's a lot different than oil which is 1 singular asset.