Wednesday, March 27, 2013

A Few things I don't like

I haven't even gone in to the 3C charts, one of the basic ideas is that most traders are not going to want to hold risk over a 3 day weekend as the market is closed Friday so if they are going to get the SPX thing done before quarter's end, it's now or never.

Here are a few of the things that bother me...

 Commodities are doing better than they should be again today.

 Commodities vs. the US dollar, this is a completely flipped correlation, it's normally the opposite,

 Apparently again oil is leading commodities, I believe this has to do with Cyprus/Russia and the EU.


 CONTEXT looks horrible with a more than 18 point negative differential and it's no wonder...

 SPY Arb so far hasn't seen any levers kick in. Maybe there's some short term accumulation, but the differential is getting wider.


 HYG is not being used as a lever

 Here's today

 3C 2 min suggests we will see some movement in HYG to the upside

 So does the 10 min chart, I think this could be the last stand for new highs on the SPX.

 TLT 3 min is seeing a little distribution, but the flight to safety trade I've been telling you is happening is now seeing movement

 VIX intraday as a lever is being used a little as the market has responded to the negative divergence this afternoon, not much beyond this though to help the market.

 Look at the drop in Yields, FLIGH TO SAFETY!!!!

 Not only were last week's lows taken out, but a low that goes back more than a month, this is pure Flight to safety.


 The Euro longer term is providing no support, this market is in trouble, don't think this chart is a mistake or anomaly.

 Intraday the Euro is of very little help

 The market is still fighting though even against the $USD

 AAPL's 15 min chart is why I wouldn't hang around long.

The 2 hour chart says something may be brewing, something bigger, but AAPL is not ready for it yet.

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