I believe that's exactly what happened today when we closed our AMZN Calls. As you know because I didn't fill out the AMZN short, but added to it, I think we have a little more upside to go because Wall Street has to sell in smaller chunks over a longer period of time and I believe that we were on the same page today.
Remember our target at the gap in yellow? For an options position, momentum is sometimes more important than higher prices if the higher prices take a longer time and have less momentum, this is one of the tricks that turned my options trading around, respecting time decay.
Here's the 1 min chart and when it lost 3C momentum, but when price loses momentum there's no reason for me to hold this asset any longer, it's losing $ on time decay and presents open market risk I don't need to be taking.
The 5 min chart is showing signs of distribution picking up as we move higher, this is NORMAL institutional distribution.
Note they accumulate at the lows and the sell in to the highs, they don't buy breakouts, they are in long before then and they don't sell at the top, they sell in to the top.
This 10 min chart seeing such a drastic drop today right as momentum died tells me Wall St. was selling at that same moment, maybe not everything, but a decent chunk to show up here.
The 30 min chart has presented the cleanest trend so we know it's still alive, but this is also slower to respond and higher prices may not be worth the momentum we were able to sell in to.
Ultimately the daily chart is the scary one and gives credibility to what looks like a H&S top at the end of the 2009 run.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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