GOOG Full Update

We have GOOG April Puts open as well as a longer term equity short position.

In the very near term GOOG isn't too dissimilar from AAPL or AMZN, at least in the approach and concept, "Let the trade come to you", which is mostly for those who want to add or start a new position.

Here's what GOOG looks like from top to bottom. I must warn you, some of the longer term charts are graphic and not meant for GOOG long's eyes.  In fact some of the longer term charts are so disconnected from the trend that you might doubt them, understand this though, I have applied 3C to just about every bull and bear market of the last century and 1929 wasn't the surprise that most think it was, the charts were really ugly before the Black day hit. I have seen what the homebuilders looked like in 2000 while the Tech bubble was blowing up and spurting semiconductors all over the place, there was a staggering amount of accumulation and back then when Juniper or Cienna was all anyone would talk about, a rally in the home-builders and housing prices leading the next bull market seemed about as far from reality as you could possibly get, but smart money knew several years in advance and made well over 2500% so as unbelievable as some of these GOOG charts may look, I'll just remind you that people were dismissive of the negative AAPL charts as it hit $700 and the overall market when it had a larger negative divergence as QE3 was announced (we got 1.5 days of rally and then dropped from Sept. 14th to November 16th-no one wanted to believe that either, 'Don't fight the F_E_D". I'm just saying, I've seen these extremes and they don't look reasonable or even possible and it turns out, most of the time, they are!

 GOOG's trend line has been broken, I've been expecting a "volatility shakeout" which would send GOOG back above the trendline, that's what most Technical traders/shorts will be watching and that's where they'd be shaken out. We're also below the first and smaller head fake level, the larger one is below around $775.

Today's trade has thus far held up above support at $801.47, but only by $.03 cents as the low has been a very round $801.50, I believe the $801.47 support area will likely be broken before GOOG even considers a run higher, it should also bring some decent volume in, if it does, then you know the shake out of the stops worked and shares would likely be accumulated (we'd have to wait for the event and check the charts) as there would be lots of supply at relatively cheap levels considering the locality.

This is the basic fuel that jump starts a move to the upside, the short covering is like the second stage booster rocket, Wall Street has to do very little at that point as "Escape velocity is reached, they can sit back and spoon out short term accumulated shares in to higher prices and demand until they are out and the rocket falls back to earth. We want to add or initiate just as the rocket loses upside momentum and just before it turns nose down.

 In Yellow we have a beautiful example of a head fake move or a failed breakout, it lifted above local resistance bringing buyers in who are chasing price and at the same moment Wall St. is distributing in to the demand from retail, you can see this is a microcosm of what we re looking for as described above with the rocket analogy.

Note volume today as morning lows were broken.

 Here it is, but there's a very flat, tight range, I'd suspect accumulation based on price action alone.

 Longer term or highest probabilities, my Demark inspired "Buy/Sell" indicator gave 4 signals, buy at 2009 lows, sell at 2010 highs, again at 2012 highs and right now. I think its only fair to recognize the track record here is pretty darn good.

 This is the daily Money Stream chart, I show it because it's a totally different indicator than 3C and it is showing an extreme of distribution throughout the last year.

 My X-Over system to avoid false price moving average crossovers (otherwise known as whipsaws) is now giving 2 of 3 signals, the 3rd is very close.

 Short term here's the 1 min chart during the very flat intraday range mentioned above, so this fits with expectations.

 2 min chart

 5 min chart- all fit with short term expectations.

 The 15 min chart is leading negative, but has a less powerful, but still meaningful positive divergence within it, I could say this is like a counter trend bounce.

 The 60 min chart is leading to a new low

 The 4 hour chart that has confirmed the GOOG trend for a couple of years at least shows a much stronger negative divergence than ever seen on this timeframe.

 This is the difficult chart, the long term daily where I use to do all of my trading from when I first created 3C. We have the 2007 distribution, 2009 accumulation, small distribution at 2009, small accumulation at 2010 as well as the same at 2011, in to 2012, things change dramatically for GOOG.

This is a bad leading negative divergence, but I've seen worse completed with price moving as suggested.