Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Market Update ***

I think this will play out as I suspected earlier, a pullback (remember I said I'd consider a QQQ long call on a pullback) and then a move to the upside, not a new or renewed trend, but maybe the new SPX high.

Here's why and these are just a few reasons.
 First there's an intraday positive divergence in the EUR/USD, this is helpful for risk assets when the Euro appreciates, but more importantly when the $USD declines.

 This is a single futures currency, really the US Dollar Index, it has a negative divergence so it is confirming the chart above, suggesting some Dollar weakness is building in, this is positive for risk assets which include stocks.

 Momentum in the TICK suggests the market pullback which is what I suspected, this allows a larger base/accumulation and a better chance at an upside move this afternoon.

 DIA 1 min is looking like it wants to pullback to the lows of the day as I suspected and I think we'll see accumulation there.

 The 2 min chart already has a positive, it's an ugly chart, but after all this chop they are not going to be pretty.

 The 3 min is positive as well

 Even the 10 min has a slight positive

 I'm not forgetting the bigger picture though, that is why these trades are speculative (on the long side) and as short as possible in duration.

 The 1 min IWM looks like it too wants to pullback as everything seems to suggest, but to pullback in a positive way.

 IWM 2 min is already positive

 As is the 5 min

 And the futures.

 Again I haven't forgotten what the real condition is of the market.

 SPY with a perfect example of a head fake move, also positive

 3 min, not beautiful, but positive and it can add to that.

5 min positive in a few areas, as if they are finally preparing for the move.

I'd be patient, lets see where the market goes, what it does as it is going there and what other assets are telling us. As the end of the quarter is upon us, there may be some effort to push the SPX to new highs as new clients for funds receive their prospectus to join a fund and somewhere in there the phrases, Dow and S&P at all time new highs, it's just the psychology of sales.

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