Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Simple Observation & 3C NAILED IT!

Before I go over the overnight events, lets just look at my post from 1 a.m. this morning and the futures and FX markets this morning...

These are excerpts from last night's post...

"Last night (Monday night) I told you of the Dominant Price/Volume Relationship and that it represents a short term oversold condition which we usually see the following day close higher, that was the case so volume is still very much relevant even a it seems it is not, you just have to look at it in a way in which the crowd doesn't. Today's dominant P/V relationship was the most bearish, Close Up/Volume Down, the exact opposite of yesterday's and typical of a very thin market running out of buyers. This relationship was in 3 of the 4 majors, the R2K being the exception as it had no dominant relationship.?

"I also noticed an odd pattern in the EUR/USD, it first looked chaotic, and now looks to have settled its minor moment of indecision with what looks to be some losses to the downside tonight."

Perhaps this is the reason for the negative 3C divergence in futures tonight, both ES and NQ.
  NASDAQ 100 futures and a 5 min chart with a leading negative divergence, remember it was the 5 min chart that made us nearly 50% in 1 day today on a positive divergence in ES.


 The ES 1 min wouldn't usually catch my attention overnight, but given the length of the trend, the EUR/USD and the 5 min chart as well as the European open only a few hours away, I take this more seriously.

Perhaps tomorrow we'll have an opportunity to cash in on some of the April Puts and establish some new positions, even in this dead-chop market, there's seemingly always an opportunity if you are patient.

And this morning...
 The pattern I noticed last night in the EUR/USD and this morning....

 The pair collapsed.

 This is ES 1 min and yellow is last night's post, ES gained another2 points and then fell 12 points in to 3C's negative 1 and 5 min divergences seen last night.

 ES 5 min negative divergence

 NASDAQ Futures gained 1 more point last night and then plunged 22 points overnight, this is the 1 min futures, yellow is last night's 1 a.m. post

 The NQ 5 min leading negative chart.

 The carry pair of EUR/JPY daily which we have been watching for about 6 weeks...

 The Carry fell out of bed with the Yen rising overnight

The same with the USD/JPY

USD/JPY overnight.

With 200:1 leverage it's not surprising futures tumbled on a stronger Yen last night.

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