Monday, March 4, 2013

It's not the % Gain-there is none, It's the Volatility

The characteristics of the market right now are why we have been able to d so well with 1-2 day weekly calls and puts, otherwise this is a pretty darn difficult market to survive, especially if you are short sighted and chase the first emotional momentum spurt.

As I said, it's not the percentage gain because there is none. The SPY just moved +.65% in the last 2 hours, but over all the volatility, just look at a 15 min chart on the SPY going back to the morning of Feb. 15th, price is at the exact same spot as it was then 11 market days ago!

So I have to wonder if what I thought this morning is taking place (increased volatility-increased rate of churn) or if this is just part of the same volatility with no real movement.

In any case, I'm rebooting the screen capture software, but ES is negative again on the day, NQ is moving that way, today's volatility since about 12:30 looks impressive on an intraday chart compared to Friday as Friday remained in a narrow op-ex pin range.

I have not changed any of the option positions since a small partial position change Friday, still with GLD April $150 Calls, SPY March $155 Puts, QQQ April $68 Puts and GOOG April $810 Puts, I don't have any plans to change them any time soon.

Here's the capture of volatility I mentioned before, it just loaded.

Price now at the same as Feb 15th, lots of volatility though.



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