Earlier today I expressed the disappointment in having looked at a number of assets and saw little more than a market that looked to be literally sitting on the fence, not part of some ploy, it looked genuinely like it was either being pulled in two different directions or that no one was willing to take any position in size, almost every asset except the Yen was extremely bland, which is not that unusual for a Monday morning, but to this degree.. Not usual.
Since then we've had some signals slowly developing, some hints here and there, but movement is the best environment to really see what's going on. There are numerous assets I could cover, more coming up every minute and many I haven't had a chance to look at yet, but here are a few that interest me.
The TICK earlier was almost as bland as the market at +/- 750, it managed a more extreme -1200 and then quickly changed trends, something there was very little of earlier. Since capturing this chart first, here's the updated TICK chart.
It is already falling put of the rising channel.
Last week I mentioned how the Volatility Futures (ETF) like VXX and UVXY had shown a very strong signal in one timeframe, but the same in all 3 ETFs which is unusual, it was as if we caught an accumulation move right as it happened in a chunk, part of a larger order broken in to chunks. Today while most charts are still bland and have little to offer, that same 3 min chart is looking very positive in VXX.
The same can be said of UVXY in the same timeframe today.
The daily VIX since the buy signal, the Bollinger Band Squeeze and break out...
The daily VIX-last week I mentioned the Rising 3 Methods Candlestick pattern, usually it's 3 candles inside the real body of a large up candle, but there are no rules as to how many, so long as they stay within the real body of the first large up candle which all 5 of these have, this is still a very bullish candlestick formation for the VIX, which trades inversely to the market.
Treasuries as the flight to safety trade also show a clear divergence, something we had very few of earlier today, but are seeing more pop up every minute, but I did think this move in TLT was worth noting as well.
I think it's still way to early in the day to assume any trend will hold, usually we get two meaningful trends between now and the close so we'll see what we get, in the meantime I'm looking for the clues as movement has shaken some traders off the fence and forced their hand.
No comments:
Post a Comment