The recent GOOG Trade Idea basically dates back to this post, although this has been a position we've been fooling with for a while, this was posted Wednesday of last week (Feb. 27).
I've put up a number of updates, reminders, etc. Here's the GOOG Puts position started Friday at half of intended size. The area in which I wanted to fill the rest was above $808.
Here's what the updated charts look like right now, even though this is a bullish looking, strong breakout, this is also the exact area I was looking for GOOG to move above last week to fill the rest of the Put position as a head fake move.
There were two head fake areas I was looking at, the first is the larger, when we entered the Q1/2012 very profitable BIDU short, it had hung above the head fake level for several weeks, however GOOG had created such an obvious resistance area, it would be very high probability that it would be used to get not only better prices, but the other thing Wall St. needs as they are filling much larger positions, DEMAND/VOLUME and since most traders chase, that's what they got.
Today's move above the area I mentioned in the first post...
Intraday here's what the move above looks like... Note the increase in volume right as GOOG breaks resistance.
However even the shortest, fastest timeframe would not confirm this move up, it shows distribution in to the move, but that's on a smaller scale.
Even the positive divergence to send GOOG above resistance is seen here, it is likely so small it won't be seen on more important longer charts that show larger flows of underlying funds.
The 2 min chart is a slightly larger scale.
The 3 min chart even larger and more negative.
The 5 min chart is where we get in to more serious flows and 3C signals, as mentioned, no hint of the short term positive to send GOOG above the resistance zone.
The GOOG 15 min chart in to the breakout move doesn't even try to confirm the move.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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