Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Pre-Market

Overnight the EUR/USd that the market tracked so closely yesterday saw an overnight move to the upside...
 EUR/USD overnight

 EUR/USD 1 min 3C chart with a negative divergence.

This alone was enough to lift futures, it didn't hurt either though that the Yen fell in overnight trade as you saw the Yen's influence on the market in last night's post.

Single Currency Yen future fall overnight taking the EUR/JPY and USD/JPY both higher.

Stock Index futures have seen ES and NQ (SPX and NDX futures) surge to their highs for the week this morning look like this right now...

 ES hits the highs of this week's trade with 3C confirmation, but a small triangle consolidation right now.

 NQ futures also at their highs with a current consolidation, but much less than confirmation from 3C.

R2K futures missed their high of the week, 3C doesn't loo good here as it too consolidates in a triangle.

The apparent reason for the overnight surge? We talked about the probability yesterday, it seems overnight the Cypriot Finance Minister who resigned, but didn't went to Russia as planned and held talks, saying, "We are hoping for a good outcome, but really cannot predict".

The entire ramp was based apparently on the word "hope" alone as discussions have produced nothing concrete yet, other than to seemingly try to force the EU's hand by involving the Russians in a bailout and strategic natural gas development project just off-shore.

As for reality, the Spanish PM said Spain will have to cut their economic outlook yet again.

Before the Bell Fed-Ex cut EPS as well as their Cap-ex, may ground aircraft, yet they are considering a 10 million share buyback-talk about subterfuge, how about spending that money on growth?

Then the EU rumor mill started up, first with

""Kathimerini Cyprus reported that an agreement has been reached in principle for Russian investors to buy Cyprus Popular Bank (Laiki) in a deal that would reduce Cyprus' funding needs by 4 billion euros."

Then as usual with,
"CYPRUS GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN DENIES REPORTS OF DEAL TO SELL CYPRUS POPULAR BANK CPBC.CY TO RUSSIAN INVESTORS."

If you can't ramp the market on hope, then go for rumors that you know not to be true.




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