Wednesday, March 20, 2013

$USD Knee Jerk?

There is still remarkably VERY little movement in a lot of short term 3C charts (think the IWM which was nearly perfectly in line as well as the 1 min intraday ES chart), the TICK is in an incredibly narrow range, but one thing I see, that isn't quite making sense is the GLD and USO short term charts.

GLD 1-3 min looks like it's going to make a move, the signals aren't strong enough for me to take a trade like AAPL yesterday and by 5 min there's not much, 10 min negative. USO also has signals that are positive in the 1, 2, 3 maybe even 5 min positive. This suggests to me a move down in the $USD, but short term as these are short term signals.

The only problem is EUR/USD isn't helping identify any FX move, and the single currency futures look negative for the Euro and positive for the $USD. I'm not sure how to take this, perhaps if GLD/USO move and the EUR/USD contradict it and signals go negative, any upside move can be faded. I would think a $USD move wouldn't come until the F_O_M_C so maybe it's part of a knee jerk reaction initially.

This is how hard it is to find any real movement, it looks like the market is VERY unsure of what Bernie will say

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