AAPL Still Not Ready

Yesterday in this post, "Waiting On AAPL" I could clearly see the potential the trade has as a long, not a trend reversal, but a counter trend move which can be stronger than bull market moves.

However as I wrote yesterday,

"I may miss the position, but I'm not taking it until the 1 min chart looks the way it should. If this were an equity long, I'd probably take it, but timing is so much more important with options, especially weeklies."

This is for some, the hardest part about trading, at least at some point in your career. Our biggest edge over Wall Street (especially the mutual funds) is that we don't have to be in the market all of the time, we can open or close a position with one trade instead of taking days, weeks and even months. Our edge is summed up in one word, "Patience", the ability to pick and choose our fights and for any military commander, the ability to pick the time and place of your fight is a huge edge that can overcome all sorts of odds stacked up against you.

Remembering what GOOG looks like (and as far as my decision, I don't even care of GOOG goes straight down from here, I would make the same decision every time when the probabilities align like that),  note the difference in the AAPL charts and this is a position I think has a lot of potential if it can just make the connection.

 Like GOOG, the 15 min chart has done the work, it looks great, but the shorter timeframes that are more along the lines of timing are problematic.

 The 10 min chart looks pretty good

However at the 5 min chart, it went from looking good and being on course to heading down the last day or so and that weakness is not coming from the longer timeframes, it's feeding up from the shorter timeframes as divergences migrate through higher timeframes-good or bad.

 So at the 1 min, there was some good action, but as I said yesterday, I'd rather miss the trade than take it with this chart looking like this and it's not just the 1 min as its nearby weakness is feeding up the timeframes.

 The 2 min chart showed some promise, but then tracked with price lower

 The 3 min chart did the same, looked good in a few areas, but tracked lower instead of showing accumulation in to lower prices, it showed confirmation of the tend lower.

I doubt the weakness on the intraday timeframes will spill over to the 15 min chart and ruin it, but for now, I can't see the edge in AAPL. 3C is meant to give u an edge, if we don't demand that edge and take sub-par trades, what's the point?

Even the 5 min momentum indicator shows no trend of bullish behavior at all, compare to GOOG even though GOOG's price action may have been weaker, the underlying action was clearly stronger and that's where the edge is.