Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Up, down, up, down...

You probably wou;ldn't be surprised if today's gap up or seeming gap up finishes down, after all, it would make 15 days in a row of this SPX see-saw action.
Today as the 15th dy would be due for a gap up open and a close down.

Furthermore, from yesterday's closing report...
"You can probably guess what today's dominant Price/Volume Relationship was, if you said Close Up/Volume Down, you are correct, this is not the relationship between the averages, but among all component stocks in each of the averages, it was very dominant, this is the most bearish of the 4 correlations and suggests a 1-day overbought condition which most typically sees the next day close down, which would fit with a 15th day of up down in the SPX."

Every day that I can recall that I have posted a dominant P/V relationship that bears some short term relationship like 1-day overbought or oversold, has called the next day perfectly, at least I can't remember the last time it hasn't.

As for the Yen last night and other currency moves...just loo at Bitcoin go, how long before the Central Banks and their agencies that do the dirty work launch a global campaign to close down Bitcoin, perhaps using Chinese Hackers, although I suspect the Chinese are quite happy with n appreciating currency. Any form of wealth like gold or solver is not liked by Fiat-based central banks which is an oxymoron, just look at what happened to the Liberty Dollar here in the U.S.

It seems the initial dust-up in the Yen sending the USD/JPY carry trade lower (not typical for recent days) was a planned set of statements by various Japanese officials and those close to the Central Bank, it seems they feel 100:1 is the perfect rate for the USD/JPY, so the Yen strengthened on those statements, I think it has more to do with China and the BOJ fearing they lost control as JGB futures were on the verge of a 3rd day in a row of limit down circuit breakers.

As for the market, as I said yesterday, "I don't trust this move", it didn't do the work so I wouldn't be surprised for the market to take some back, unless we have another day of "Lowest volume of the year" (excluding holidays) so the algos can ramp the market again.

The EUR/USD is in a range of sorts between $1.30 and $1.3060. There's a little futures weakness in the Euro single currency, but nothing out of hand and a spot of strength in the Dollar Index, again, nothing very spectacular. The Yen has gained a bit since the USD/JPY high of $99.65 last night right around the time of the Japanese statements on the USD/JPY's appropriate level of $100 and has seen the Yen strengthen since, with the USD/JPY now lower at $98.93. This is slightly market negative as the Carry trade is effected, whatever carry is left.

As for the futures, they are coming up in the next post. 




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