Thursday, April 25, 2013

Leading Indicators

I don't have time to show you everything in Leading Indicators, but here are several that made a difference.

 High Yield Credit was not keeping pace with the SPX in the afternoon session.

FCT is a good measure of sentiment or Risk Appetite since its not directly correlated (as a manipulative asset) and it has been risk off since about the same time we started seeing negatives in the averages yesterday.

Yields was one to watch, this slight dislocation at the far right was very important as to whether the SPX was frothy/toppy.

Even on a longer term scale you can see how today's Yields mattered.

High Yield Corporate Credit was another that was just starting to disconnect with the SPX, much like Yields.

 Long term HYG still remains supportive, this is another reason I think we see a little more upside after a correction.

Here TLT should have been making lower lows as the SPX made higher highs, this is the exact same behavior we saw before the last 3+% correction in a few days.

Volatility/ VIX Futures (VXX) just like last time are doing the exact same thing (same as TLT above), they should be moving lower, but an apparent bid for protection because of fear is showing REAL ORGANIC demand, holding prices from going lower as the normal correlation would suggest.

 Another look at VXX vs. SPY

VXX 1 min was also starting to see improvement after being in line all day

The 10 min chart continues to show the same length positive divergence as we see in the market averages that trade opposite VXX with their negative divergences.

Currencies...
Intraday the $AUD is generally supportive of the market, although it has been fading a bit since noon time. The Euro had a sharp fall in to 10:15, although it is negatively dislocated from the SPX intraday (as well as longer term), it is trying to move in the same manner as the SPX. The $USD has fallen off pretty significantly since yesterday morning, I suspect this is behind not only the market's intraday performance, but GLD and SLV too. Right now the $USD continues to fall off just about in the same area as the SPX moving up; there's obviously some correlation/influence there at work. The Yen doesn't seem to be an issue.

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