Market & Futures Update

This has definitely been one of the stranger markets I've seen, still, if the trade doesn't look VERY high probability, I'd rather miss it than get caught in what will be increasing volatility and increasing unpredictability. Smart Money herd too, remember when Dan Loeb's First Point Fund had AAPL as a top 5 holding and the next release it was missing? Well the Hedgies and others tried to sell their AAPL holdings without knocking price down, I got too fancy for my pants and covered my short as we were down, but I expected a little bounce that I could short in to at better levels. Well at some point smart money's herding instinct sees one break away from the pack out of fear and takes the "He who sells first, sells best" approach and knocks price down by putting too large a chunk out all at once, then everyone is down and everyone starts dumping, before you know it AAPL has lost -40% and 286 points in 6 months, that's the herd all trying to fit through the same door at the same time and it will happen with the market too.

Thus, if I'm going to trade against the probabilities, there's got too be a VERY STRONG case for it.

 DIA 1 min positive from yesterday and a leading negative intraday in to the afternoon.

 DIA 5 min leading positive with a relative negative divergence now

 IWM 1 min is actually pretty strong with a leading positive and only a small relative negative that likely caused some sideways consolidation today

 IWM 5 min looks the best, from the worst to the best, leading positive

 QQQ 2 min leading negative intraday

 QQQ 5 min relative positive (big) and leading positive to leading negative

 SPY 1 min Positive to in line to a pretty decent negative

 SPY 5 min positive, in line and a leading negative

 ES 1 min leading negative intraday

 ES 5 min positive and in line, a pullback with a leading positive at a new high would be worth the chance

 NQ 1 min leading negative

 NQ 5 min leading positive

 TF 1 min leading negative

TF 5 min in line, it's odd that in futures the R2K looks the worst, but in equities it looks the best.

All in all the market doesn't look bad here, but it's not high probability/low risk