Tuesday, April 16, 2013

INCREDIBLE! Last Night's Futures Post in Currencies Called FX moves Perfect and Today's Market.

Last night's Futures post as it relates to the currencies which are so important to the market movement right now, not only called the EXACT moves in the currencies, but also the exact moves in the market in last night's commentary below each chart. I show you the changes today, which are much more market negative (perhaps the pullback?)

Since Currencies remain so important, here's a look at one of the risk pairs that seems to have held the market in place.

Something odd did happen today sending the $USD lower almost instantly, it was definitely not normal trade, not sure what it was though, but that is market supportive.

What is interesting is last night's futures post correctly predicted the move in the Euro, $USD and that they would be market supportive. From last night's futures post.... the relevant charts and commentary...

$USDX (US Dollar Index) 5 min
" 5 min leading negative, clearly the short term looks like a correction in the larger trend of a move up from the pullback of the last 2-3 weeks or so."

USDX 1 min
"also supports a short term move to the downside or correction, this is short term market supportive as well as commodities and most risk assets incl. precious metals and oil."


Now today's $USDX 3C charts...

 $USDX 1 min is in a leading negative divergence

 $USDX 1 min in a leading positive divergence, this suggests a move higher which is short term market NEGATIVE

$USDX 5 min- First note how much $USDX fell from last night at the highs of the chart, just as 3C predicted last night. Today there's a positive divergence moving in to leading position, this is short term market negative.

Now last night's Euro short term analysis...
" 5 min the Euro very short term looks like it wants to bounce, but I wouldn't be surprised if it started to head down before a market bounce was over, the Euro/market correlation has been weak lately, the $AUD has had much better short term correlation."

 " 1 min looks like it will move a bit higher overnight as of now."

Now today's Euro charts...

 The 1 min is in a deep leading negative divergence, this suggests a move to the downside, this is a short term market negative.

EUR 5 min, Just as predicted last night, " 5 min the Euro very short term looks like it wants to bounce," it did exactly that from  about $1.3025 to $1.3208, a pretty significant move of nearly 200 pips and short term market supportive.

Now we have a decent size 5 min negative divergence. Put the pairs together and you get the EUR/USD...
It bounced overnight which is market supportive, this is why we didn't get a pullback today. I believe I correctly theorized Friday and over the weekend that currencies were going to be front and center in market action.

This 1 min EUR/USD is negative as the pairs would suggest, if these hold up as they did today in to tomorrow, we should have exactly the opposite from today, a market correction!

Other currencies that are influencing the market...

Here's what I said last night in my futures post about the short term action in the $AUD which moves with the market.

$AUD 5 min... "5 min is showing increasing momentum to reverse the last swing down to a move to the upside, again short term market supportive as well."

Overnight the $AUD moved from a low of $1.024 to $1.0345 currently, this is an equity and index futures supportive move.
         
The $AUD today...
$AUD and then a leading negative divergence suggesting a move lower which is market negative.

Last night's Futures post commentary about the Yen

Yen...

Yen 15 min from last night...

" 15 min This is confirming and on a timeframe that suggests a decent base and/or move up in the market would be well supported by the Yen as well as the other currencies above."

The Yen didn't move much since last night or today,
 the current 15 min chart...


There's not much change from last night on the 15 min chart, it's still long term positive which is market negative, but near term leading negative which would be supportive of the market bounce.

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