Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Currencies

I'm a little surprised that currencies aren't performing better considering some single currency futures have decent looking chart, however I wonder if it would even matter, the market was able to move up earlier with the risk currencies falling, who's to say the market doesn't fall with risk currencies moving up? The reason? A lot of correlations are in limbo or changing, the carry trade for example is morphing from being very important to not as important, the swings are too big with 200:1 leverage, I suspect much of the nasty downside we have seen in certain currencies has been the carry being closed en masse.

In any case, each bit of new information tells us something new about what's important, what has changed and what is becoming important as well a what is becoming irrelevant.



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