Tuesday, May 14, 2013

GS Charts

I've had a lot of emails about GS, I've urged patience and today we have a nice set up, thus the filling out of the equity short position.

 Longer term GS was already in trouble, that's why the short equity position was started, but there was room left to add if we got better prices, this is only done when the big picture looks bad.

In the yellow box is one of the greatest examples of, "Price is deceptive", it's very hard to see day to day and certainly intraday, but this is a "Channel Buster", it looks VERY bullish, but in fact is a change of character that is quite effective and reliable as a bearish set up. It sucks in the bulls by appealing to greed and then typically dumps to the bottom of the channel, sometimes even below before a corrective shakeout to shake off new shorts under the channel, then typically heads down.

In this case we needed a head fake move to add to GS, the best one in this case is a higher high, that's the only thing in Technical Analysis that will allow the bulls the confidence that the downtrend is broken, today GS did that.

However the 60 min chart shows this move toward that higher high culminating today had no strong 3C support, this was not institutional money moving back in to GS, it was them trying to get out of it.

Note there's no accumulation period before the upside reversal, it wouldn't be strong enough to make it here because it's not that kind of move.

The 15 min chart's trend from negative at the Channel Buster, mostly in line with the downtrend.

 A closer look reveals enough accumulation to move GS this far, but distribution in to the move.

Intraday the 1 min so far is confirming the move as a head fake, I feel good that Financials generally look the same.

3 min GS

and migration to the 5 min.


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