Market Update

I just realized I haven't shown you intraday charts, so you have no idea what I'm looking at when
I say, "The Q's are fighting"...

First I think we can look at today's move, the action in the 3C charts and safely conclude we have a head fake move today, which with the HYG information may in fact be our timing signal.

It's hard to watch every asset, I've seen them try to kick start AAPL which would be most helpful for the Q's, I've seen the normal levers, but the arbitrage is so deeply red now it's silly and right now they are just moving to the currencies and lifting those, the problem or interesting aspect is while the $USD falls and the risk currencies rise, the Yen is rising too, so I'm wondering how much the Yen negates. This is not a market having an easy time right now.


Lets start with the Q's...

 QQQ 1 min intraday leading negative, when 3k was lost you saw the positive intraday divergence come out.

2 min QQQ is really not showing anything positive so there's not that much willingness to take on risk. Remember how the market got here, I'll prove it to you after market, it wasn't demand, it was HYG.

DIA 1 min leading negative-not fighting like the Q's

 DIA 2 min is worse.

The IWM 1 min is showing some fight.

2 min is pretty far gone, this confirms the head fake on today;s move, a good day to enter shorts/puts on price strength and underlying weakness.

SPY 1 min is leading negative and not fighting.

2 min is similar.

To prove there's no demand for risk, look at the TICK today, even with this big move, the TICK has only been over 1000 a handful of times, 1000 should be the mean on a day like today with +1500, but there aren't that many stocks advancing compared to the move, again proof of HYG's involvement.

You can see the back and forth in TICK at the EOD, right now it's showing a bit more strength, but this is a market struggling severely, I don't know what it will be able to do if it loses HYG.