Tuesday, May 14, 2013

HYG Follow Up... Market UPDATE

This link to yesterday's 3:18 p.m. market update tells you a lot aBOUT THE HYG, TLT, VXX connection, what I was looking for which we now have and what I'd be looking for next. These excerpts from yesterday's post summarize everything quite nicely and it has played out EXACTLY as thought thus far, the next thing I'm looking for is all in HYG...

The post starts off with the concept...

"if we follow the AAPL theory, then the market should get 1 last move to the upside, HYG will support that move...

HYG 1 min-as an oversold move as cover, HYG's move up would support the SPY Arbitrage model/SPY, if we follow the AAPL example laid out as the model for the market as well, HYG's action makes a LOT of sense."

HYG as a risk asset run or as a lever?

 "For instance, although not strong, we do have an HYG positive to 5 mins, at 10 min it stops completely, no hint. What does that tell you about HYG? As a lever, it is being prepped,

as a real asset in portfolios...This 15 min chart tells you everything you need to know, as I mentioned before, they are running, not walking away from risk in Credit."


Timing

"I would think they'd want this move to start before the close today to make the most of it on the open tomorrow."


What to look for next-the most important part...

I would say one of the most important things to watch for is HYG to make its move, that should (with TLT and VXX lower and under accumulation) allow the market to make that move up I envisioned in AAPL-IF THE MARKET MOVE OR ESPECIALLY HYG ARE SOLD PREMATURELY (NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES-EVEN PRICE FALLING) I THINK WE WILL KNOW THE MARKET IS ACTUALLY MAKING THAT CRACKING SOUND.

THAT WILL BE THE TIME TO MAKE YOUR MOVES ASAP, IN FACT I'M GOING TO LOOK RIGHT NOW, I'D RATHER BE A DAY EARLY THAN SCURRYING AROUND LAST MINUTE."

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