This has all the makings of a perfect head fake move, this is what the bounce move is supposed to do as I expressed yesterday, if you feel yourself getting nervous or bullish, then it is doing what it is designed to do. The level is perfect as 1600 was a psychological magnet as a centennial number and there's demand, but they are still pulling the levers, I'm checking which ones now.
ES is pretty close to flat so I imagine risk assets will fade off first before the market, for now I'mm pretty interested in our AMZN calls, but keeping a close eye.
Looking ahead, this gives the F_E_D their employment mandate, their wealth effect, they can start backing out of policy, I believe that is why gold is in a primary trend bear market (look at a 5 day chart zoomed out to 2007), just as gold went up under QE, what do you think happens when QE is gone? The market is forward looking.
Right now though it's one bridge at a time, the level of manipulation though in the jobs data is amazing after the F_E_D came out with the most insane policy statement, "We may buy more, we may buy less" and answers no questions, then 2 jobs reports hitting ridiculous numbers we all know not to be true.
In any case, I'll let you know where they are squeezing and if anything looks like it will break.
Oh, by the way, there's VERY little confirmation of this move up in the averages.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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