Friday, May 3, 2013

Futures

Last night's post linked in the last post went through all of the reasons why we were patient and waited on the market, there are many.

Right now we are seeing much of what we have been looking for, everything? No, but the market is moving EXTREMELY fast.

Here are the Equity Index Futures.

You already know what the more important 5 min charts look like, but I will remind you with ES (SPX Futures).

 ES 1 min, the point here is the leading negative intraday divergence in the SPX futures (E-mini).

As promised, a re-post of the ES 5 min chart, this is a much heavier underlying flow of funds.
 If you are brand new to 3C, this won't make sense, if you have been around, you know what this means. There's a couple of posts linked near the top right of the member's site called, "Understanding 3C".

 The NQ (NDX futures), interesting isn't it how there was accumulation all night in the overnight session, not just here, but ES and TF too.

Are any of you surprised that I called this NFP print yesterday? Probably not, but in a normal functioning market you should be amazed, in this manipulated market, any of you who have witnessed a few weeks of what we see every day could easily have called it after that F_O_M_C policy statement.

TF (R2K futures) leading negative intraday.

Also it looks like the Dollar might be seeing some intraday distribution which would send it lower and the Euro some intraday accumulation which would send it higher, that should give the EUR/USD  an intraday positive divergence, which it hasn't yet, perhaps they are too new, but both are market positives, except for the position of EUR/USD which we'll see what happens.

The Yen is important, it is more or less in line, but the $AUD has a leading negative intraday, this is a market negative, the point being, different currencies are moving in slightly different directions signal wise, I think many are too young, but besides finding the right trades, I need to confirm we are at the right spot in the market.

I have a lot of respect for those signals, but "Thinking like a crook", what would you do if you were pulling the levers?

I would want to make sure to close the SPX ABOVE $1600, I don't know if it matters where in the daily range, just above. This gives the media all weekend to appeal to retail's greed, remember why this move is there, to appeal to retails's greed. The move is designed to overcome their fear and get them buying in the market, that is the only way smart money can sell/sell short, they need demand, they need higher prices otherwise the entire exercise is for nothing.

I  think the leading indicators need to fall more. 

So I think we close > $1600, but I'll stay alert, we are seeing selling in to demand via these negative divergences, but what's the use in doing all of this and not letting it even hit the news for retail that works 9-5? I do think there will be certain stocks that are probably in good position and we'll be watching for those.



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