Yesterday I had a VERY HARD decision and decided that, yes we should expect to see distribution in to the move higher, I explained the concept myself, how can I disagree with my own concept. The diffrence here and now is what I told you to expect at this time in the market, increased volatility, not only the % moves, but even the day to day moves, I showed you last night how we had the biggest move down all year Wednesday and the second biggest move up all year and over the two days we travelled less that 0.003%, all of that volatility and now move from Tuesday's close. Two days of insane volatility up falls in to the saem category, the other thing I said was, "Increasingly Unpredictable" and higher ATR (daily Range) moves.
Yesterday I decided not to fall for it, not to enter short, be patient because there were too many very small signs, no one big one that I could point to, but hundreds of small ones.
Today is an even harder decision because we are where I expected us to go, but thinking like a Crook, unless what happened to AAPL happens now, it would be a waste not to get the weekend warriors placing their limit orders for Monday morning.
Do you know how hard it is to standby with signals like this?
I'd short ES every time with a leading negative signal like this, but other indications don't add up.
NASDAQ Futures (NQ) even shows some accumulation just as they turn price down to pull in shorts.
This TF (Russell 2000) signal is insane, I'd ALWAYS short this, but even it has some relative positives as price starts to roll over.
I'm not looking to play intraday moves, to get short and then have the market run up in the last 5 minutes of trade, I'm looking for the larger trend signals and set ups, other indications say we are not yet at the High Probability Trades we look for.
However these two days have been some of the most difficult decisions ever and I'd expect that considering where we are in the market cycle and what's on the line.
Unless the other indications or red flags change, I don't care what the market does, even if it runs down to under $1600, until those other indications are in line, I expect there to be a lot of traps.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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