As mentioned, I knew I'd take a loss here and there's still a decent chance HYG goes on to gain more ground, but I don't have proof that this is a high probability scenario, I'd rather take the loss now than a worse one later as HYG looks like this right now...
This is intraday, but there's no longer charts backing this up, this is pretty much it. If a high probability set up came around, I'd take it, but I don't see it any time soon.
The cost basis was $.87 so at the fill of $.45, that's about a 50% loss, which is why these are speculative trades and smaller in size.
More importantly, HYG is a big part of the SPY arbitrage, without it the SPY will struggle badly and you know what the long term HYG chart looks like, as if the market should have already broken so I think this is very thin ice; either this "W" bottom is going to come together and make a strong move or we are at the edge of it failing.
I just don't understand the obvious Japanese manipulation as their averages were pounded until the Japanese government came out with a change to their Pension plan that benefitted stocks, then the Japanese markets shot up like a rocket, it was clear intervention.
I can only guess that it was either to support this "W" and really the move planned to take off from it, or it was simply managing the destruction as the Nikkei was set for a 5% 1-day loss, the biggest thus far. It was only a week ago that the Nikkei seemed unstoppable on its parabolic run, that's the thing about parabolic moves, they end badly.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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