TLT Treasuries, The Flight To Safety (and Collateral) Trade

Yes, banks need collateral so they can borrow from the biggest bank in the U.S.- the F_E_D.

TLT is also a flight to safety trade, I have said several times recently, "Something is Going On With TLT/Treasuries" and have expressed other comments along those lines.

In this morning's Watchlist update, I said this about TLT,

"I expect to accumulate in a range around $114 to $115-ish until the market move is over, then a big move up in TLT."

Other recent comments have included,

"sentiment changing as I believe TLT is going to surprise to the upside."

"I mentioned it last night that I didn't trust this move, it's too gravitational, too many people are sucked up in it which makes it the perfect boat to flip as everyone is lined up on one side."

You get the drift. It's my gut feeling that there's a big trade here, but how to leverage it and enter because I'd like to build a position just in case, but that can't be easily done with basic option strategies and to simply buy TLT wouldn't have enough ROE to make it worthwhile. I'm still thinking about this one, but here's some of the evidence. 

As far as that range goes...

 I said I though the range would be $114 to $115-ish, you can see right above $115 today TLT turned down, however overall there's a leading positive divergence. I checked the 30 year Treasury futures, /ZB and here's what I found.

The 5 min chart shows a leading positive divergence at the bottom of the range ($114 TLT area) and above the TLT $115 area you see a negative divergence, this isn't to sell off shares, it's to create and maintain a range as I talked about earlier (re: Ranges and 3C acc. / dist.).

 The 60 min TLT chart from negative at the top which we knew was being set up at the time to a relative positive, and then a stronger positive divergence. This is the typical way divergences form, next will be a leading positive and at 60 mins, that's a huge signal to go long TLT, which is a huge signal that the market will be in free-fall.

 This is the 30 year future 15 min chart showing a leading positive divergence (very similar to TLT)

And this is the daily 30 yr. futures, it's already leading positive, this is why I'd like to start building now.

In any case, I think this is a big trade, it's just a matter of how/when to enter and how to leverage the trade.