Thursday, May 23, 2013

Please Don't Chase Anything

I'll let you know when divergences are looking appealing and there looks to be a high probability trade at hand.

We still have some very strong signals in protective assets like TLT, those will have to be tamed down, however it does look like the "Buy the dip" crowd is stepping up on the dip thus far, I just  want to make sure we are not following retail, but smart money (as a short term trade).

The bottom line is, even if the probabilities are good, we still need an excellent trade set up. I can tell you the probabilities are high that the market rises, but if we can't buy in to a decline at better prices and lower risk, higher probabilities do not equal a high [probability trade.

I'd rather miss the trade than take a sub-par trade just so I don't miss the probabilities, because then I'm setting myself up for the probability of too much risk for not enough potential gain.

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