This is probably getting a little confusing, but yesterday I saw divergences suggesting the "Flight to Safety" Treasuries were going to be up today so I opened a TLT Call and opened a TBT Put, TBT is the 2x leveraged inverse or "Bear" version of TLT, so in essence, by shorting TBT with a put, I am essentially going long TLT with 2x leverage as well as the Put/option leverage.
I closed TLT and took profits as soon as I got home from the Dr. this morning, but left TBT open.
Here's why...
In the red box, I closed the TLT call opened yesterday afternoon-I told you this would be hit and run trading as the market gets volatile and choppy, but that was a nice 21.5% gain for about an hour or market exposure not incl. overnight.
I didn't close TBT puts because of the reason I warned you of yesterday-they have so little volume that it's hard to get a bid, big mistake.
Any way, TBT needs to go down and TLT up for the TBT put to make money, as you can see on the 1 min it's leading negative.
Same on the 2 min
The 5 min is quite clear, this chart alone could tell anyone that the market was in trouble.
And the cycle in TBT 15 min with accumulation, confirmation, distribution and now decline.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
No comments:
Post a Comment