Quick Market Update

The Yen is still negative, hasn't come down so much yet and there are some contradictions intraday I'm trying to piece together, it may be op-ex related, it may be something else like a move starts earlier. We will not enter anything that isn't high probability with all that it means, not just higher probabilities, but a good trade set up considering price, location, risk, etc.

In any case, here's what we have so far.

 Yen negative getting deeper, a pullback in the Yen should send the SPX higher, but the SPX in my view needs to base around yesterday's lows, maybe even make a head fake move below yesterday's lows before it's in trade-able position.

I don't see how the SPX can do this "if " the Yen pulls back intraday- OR perhaps the Yen builds a larger negative divergence that is set up for the eventual bounce.

Timing of the bounce becomes important, I was initially thinking that not too many traders will want to carry long risk over a 3-day weekend, but with the pros already out of NYC, most of this action is going to be retail and I don't think they think like that, they think, "Tuesday's have seen the Dow up 19/19 consecutively so I want to be long today for a Tuesday run".

In that case, we typically see the market freed up from the op-ex pin after 2 pm when most contracts are settled. That could be the time for a move to start and would give retail the urger to go long with limit orders over the weekend for the majority that work 9-5.

The SPY...

 1 min looks in line still, the Q's and IWM have slight intraday pullbacks, but not very strong.

I'm looking and hoping the market moves back to the range, if institutional money was operating today rather than driving to the Hamptons, it probably would and a head fake move below would be a great set up, but retail isn't going to do that, that is done to retail by smart money so that's an open question.

5 min shows the range that we look for with accumulation and that we look for as part of the "reversal process"-it's decent size, but it could be bigger".

Bottom line is that I will try to determine what is most likely, but any trades have to be worth while, not just gambling on a "most probable" hunch, we need real, hard evidence and a good set up. I'd rather miss the move than take an irresponsible trade that is based on greed and emotion than facts.

If you are interested in seeing a beautiful head fake move, check out IOC today, one of our shorts and I'm glad to see the HF move.