Monday, June 24, 2013

AAPL Update and long equity position.

AAPL broke the $400 level as we were expecting, stops were hit and shorts entered as this chart makes clear.
The candle before $400 was broken had a low of $400.38, the candle with the white arrow and the swelling volume had a high of $464 and a low of $398.61, clearly $400 was broken on this bar, volume could have told you that without even checking prices. Think about that, how many people took some action, either sold or sold short, maybe even bought right at a psychological (whole) centennial number. This just goes to show how the human mind works and how Wall Street takes advantage of it.

From a single trader's perspective, they're looking at the chart and saying, "If $400 is broke, I'l...", then you add hundreds of thousands of these individual traders all thinking the same, that's what you get.

Note the 1 min AAPL chart went negative at the EOD Friday, gapped down today, stayed almost perfectly in line until $400 was hit and then started to go positive.

The 2 min chart

3 min chart

And 10 min chart, volume is very important in this process for institutional money, it's the deciding factor of whether they can squeeze their big but in the door or not, is the door wide enough? Is there enough volume? Today's move was one of the lager volume moves in a strong of triangle set ups.

I'd consider AAPL a tradable long position here, but a trade only. AAPL probably has a little sideways action to put in, but I'm fine with an equity long here. The risk at this level is pretty reasonable vs the reward. I'm thinking about 50% a normal equity position for now, I may go to 2/3rd, but that will depend entirely on whether there's what I'd consider to be a sharper edge/better opportunity.



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