Monday, June 24, 2013

Glad I Took Some IOC Off the Table

That was about a 22% gain, but I believe IOC has a lot further to go on the downside over the coming months. I'd put IOC on your short watchlist, whether an add-to position or a new short position, I think it will be a nice trending trade.

Intraday these are some of the momentum indicators I use, you can use them on any timeframe really. There's "Momentum" in the price window, under that is Wilder's RSI, not to be confused with the "Relative Strength Index" (two entirely different indicators), RSI is set to 6 period, about half the usual setting.

I have nothing against a MACD histogram, I just don't want to use the same thing everyone else is looking at, I use a setting of 26/52/9 rather than the typical 12/26/9. Sometimes I go even longer to 52/104/9. These longer period reduce a lot of noise and display the trend more clearly and very few people are seeing what I'm seeing with my settings.

Finally at the bottom, a simple Stochastics, but again, rather than use a 12 or 14 period, I go with a much longer 50 period and I look for embedded Stochastics, if it's embedded like it is at the red area, for me that is NOT an oversold / buy signal, that is a short or rather "Stay short) signal. When the first divergence (in this case a higher low) appears, I start looking at the exit.

IOC's big picture 4-day 3C chart
Imagine the move of 22% coming from that little area in the red box, now look at the long term range and 3C showing long term/heavy distribution. If I go by the price pattern implied target alone I still come up with a downside target of, somewhere in the mid to low teens. So keep in mind, if you like IOC, this is an energy related stock so you might want to plan ahead so you don't end up with too many positions that are all highly correlated (like several energy shorts). If you know you like IOC, you might consider it over another energy stock.

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