Retail Sentiment

The retail crowd is bearish, their motto changed from "Buy the dips" to "Sell the rips", the market can't be dumbed down to a simple light switch mentality, that's what humans have done through history when we didn't understand the complexities of something, we made very simple ideas that would give us comfort in a situation we felt we had little control of understanding, we're still doing it today, CNBC is a great example. "The market was up today because of the Initial Claims beat this morning" or "The market was down today because of the Initial Claims miss this morning".

In any case, this is the rip most will be looking to sell first.

First resistance is yesterday's close. Watching how the market, leading indicators, volume and underlying trade behave in the area will tell us a lot about  what to expect.

For a wider perspective, look at the daily chart...

First we have a "Crazy Ivan" shakeout around the triangle. Secondly we have the last two days seeing capitulation-like volume (short term, not primary) and moves off the lows. There's a distinct change in character on this chart alone not counting everything else.

You saw the Street's sentiment earlier today with the FCT chart I posted as well as Credit.