Early Update

First, it's pretty rare to have this kind of opaqueness in the market, but it's not unique, it happens from time to time until things come back together and I've found it's just a matter of patience, the causes can be numerous depending on market conditions, but eventually they all line back up and we have a clear edge again, I don't want to step in front of the F_O_M_C bus without a clear edge.

Market averages this morning are all over the place, but I don't trust any upside right now, I "think" there needs to be some repair work done from yesterday so as of right now I consider them useless.

The only thing sticking out early is the 3 Arbitrage assets, HYG, VXX and TLT and even there we have some discrepancy, but I think this is the clearest thing we've probably seen this week which isn't saying a lot.

HYG- High Yield Corp. Credit... This is a risk asset, when it moves up or accumulates strongly, it's a signal the market is likely getting ready for a move up. This fell apart badly yesterday so I closed two Call positions and opened a put.

This is just the 1 min chart, it shows the repair process started late yesterday, still only 1 min. Here's a closer view...

1 min HYG

The 2 min is trying to follow, but it still needs some work before it can even be considered reliable.

The 3 min isn't anywhere near the other two yet.

XIV is the opposite of VXX, it trades with the market so this is a little interesting.

 1 min positive, yesterday this was probably the most positive of assets on the risk side in general.

 XIV 2 min looks decent

5 min looks pretty good

The monkey wrench is TLT, remember though these are 20+ year bonds, if the F_E_D tapers, they mess with the long end and anchor the short end so to see some anomalies here before the F_O_M_C tomorrow isn't unexpected, but as of now, it contradicts the two charts above, I feel this is definitely directly F_O_M_C related.

 1 min positive would suggest TLT moves up, that would send the market down in most cases.

TLT 3 min is seeing some strength as well, but interestingly it looks a lot like HYG and they are polar opposites so once again, I think this is very much F_O_M_C related positioning before 2 p.m. tomorrow.

When the averages start to show some consistiency, then we'll be closer, that could happen after a.m. trade, it may take longer. We'll just have to be patient until clarity returns and with that, our edge.