Yesterday volatility up and down and back up was all based on articles pointing to the F_O_M_C doing one thing this week (sent stocks up Friday/Monday) to the next article that had a move hawkish tone which sent stocks down yesterday, then the same writer of the previous article cast doubt on his own article in a blog post a few hours later sending the market back up yesterday afternoon.
There's nothing specific that I've seen, but apparently the word on the street is this F_O_M_C meeting is not to be feared.
I think things are going to change intraday soon again, but for a similar reason to yesterday, initial divergences in intraday timeframes were run over for F_E_D sentiment.
Her are some examples, then I'll show you the newest charts that shed more light, that really do look like the market has to come down in the next 45 mins.
Oh and by the way, the SPY arbitrage model is $.80 negative, meaning it expects the SPY to come down $.80, this happened with ES yesterday nearly to the dollar.
The Yen (green) vs SPX inverse correlation that has been so strong, is totally distorted today and the market is rising here when it should be falling, at least for now.
USD/JPY 1 min, a large negative and like yesterday a smaller intraday positive holding the market together a bit longer.
ES with a decent size negative, then 3C moves higher with price, but there's no positive divergence reversing the original signal so in my view this move is a house of cards (since the intraday negative).
CONTEXT came down to reversion yesterday after being about 18 points lower than ES, right now it has started again with CONTEXT about -12 points lower than ES
And the TICK chart appears to be breaking.
I have other charts of interest.
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