Thursday, June 13, 2013

Update and Positions

This is why I wanted to get positions in place yesterday, I'll cover some that are still viable, but this is not specific analysis of any one asset, I'd prefer to get in on any mentioned on an intraday pullback if possible.

First though...

 ES 1 min makes it seem likely an intraday pullback is possible, once a short squeeze starts though it will be much harder to find pullbacks.

ES 5 min did what was expected last night with the sharp rounding bottom, but still a process, it put in the head fake move mentioned under $1600 and is coming up now with increased momentum, this is the fast reversal I have been talking about, they need to keep psychological pressure on the shorts to force them in to emotional decisions. This is also why I trust buying a pullback in certain assets as the longer term seems to have our back at least for the duration of this move which I have thought since the start would be the more impressive of the two moves (down first, up second).

I know a lot of you like these multiple position updates, they aren't my favorite because things move so fast, but I'll try to comeback and take a look at some more promising positions individually.

 First the 5 min QQQ, the signal isn't that important, it's the nearby support and whether or not that sees a head fake move, it's so close it's like a magnetic force, perhaps the Q's do, but I don't think the market at large does.

For instance, the distance is quite a bit more on the SPY, I doubt it makes that deep of a move.

The DIA is even further,

VXX going negative which is positive for the market on the upside, this is why I mentioned all of the VXX positions yesterday and opened a VXX put, there's still XIV long as an equity way of playing VXX downside with no leverage and SVXY (long) for 2x leverage. As far as a put, I'd need to look at VXX closely after this.

 HYG/ High Yield corp. credit, the very liquid kind that smart money often uses, it's not just the 3C signal, it's the actual price vs the SPX, credit would be the first to move down in a bearish upcoming environment and vice versa, I've mentioned its relative strength nearly all week. Take a look below.

 HYG (green) vs the SPX today, that's quite a risk on move and probably one of the best charts for those that aren't seeing underlying action, if they know what credit's relationship is with the market, this chart says a lot.

Positions
 Obviously I still like the AMZN calls from yesterday, I'd probably only trade AMZN with calls. As a short which I'd like to add to (equity only), I'm looking for prices >$282.50-$285.

GS I told you yesterday looks a lot better than expected as a near term long, again I think some leverage is best, again this is another on my longer term core equity short sale list at higher prices.

 GOOG I'm watching, I haven't done anything with it as far as a long trade yet, it is a longer term short sale position, actually already started so I'd like to add to it in the near future at higher prices. I'll let you know about any possible long entries for the near term.

UNG had the EIA NG report today, I haven't seen it, but overall I like how it is developing. note the symmetry in the top's size as well as the bottom's.

IBM is also a longer term core short position I want to add to at higher prices, whether it's worth a short term long trade remains to be seen, I'll look.

SLV (Silver) seems to have a very strong longer term 15 min chart, I'd expect a head fake move with a break of support before it really moves, again I'll need to take a closer look as to whether this is getting ready for a near term move or just storing energy for a longer term move, I still have a 2x SLV short in position, AGQ that I'll probably close soon.

NFLX is another longer term core equity short at higher prices, but in the near term I think it can make a nice move up, this is an open Call position, whether or not there's still a decent area to add, I'll have to check.

ERX is the Energy 3x long ETF, I actually like it here as an equity long, obviously a pullback to or just below support would be a better entry, the 3 most important sectors for a market upside move are Tech, Financials and Energy.

 XLE- Energy Sector I also like short term, this would be more of an options (call) position, I'll have to look at it closer to see if its viable or not.

 MCP is an open Call position, I love the chart, if I weren't already in I'd probably consider a position, I think this can even be traded as a long equity position with no leverage.

 15 min longer term SRTY 3x leveraged IWM short looks great, as a longer term position...

In the near term it should come down, which means...

URTY long would be the trade of choice for the near term, 3x long IWM.

 The same is true of SQQQ 3x short the NDX/QQQ, but near term it should come down making...

TQQQ the near term long position of choice, a pullback would be nice, but it's still in good position.

TQQQ closer 3 min chart leading positive.

I'll check some of the individual names to see what we have that's viable as I do believe a pullback is coming very soon intraday

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