Wednesday, July 31, 2013

ACCOMMODATIVE POLICY

I suspected it, the F_O_M_C statement JUST confirmed it.

Remember when the last minutes came out and the market did NOT like them even though they were all over the place, the minutes did contain language talking about some members wanted to end QE at the last F_O_M_C meeting, also "Half believe it is appropriate to end QE before the end of 2013".

THEN BERNIE SPOKE LATER THAT AFTERNOON AT A CONFERENCE AND TOOK QUESTIONS...

Bernie said that accommodative policy would be in place for words to the effect of "longer than the minutes seemed to imply and longer than the market seemed to take the minutes as saying".

I said back then that this was "Plausible Deniability", Bernie was letting the market determine what "accommodative policy" was, the market chose to interpret that as QE, I argued that interest rates staying low was "accommodative policy" even if QE was ended immediately and Bernie was purposefully being ambiguous to let the market interpret it the way he knew it would, but to be able to back away from the statement by saying, "Low interest rates are accommodative policy".

In the policy statement just read, unemployment which HAD been tied to the length of QE was just tied to the length of low interest rates, I don't have the exact words, but they were to the effect of ...

AFTER QE HAS ENDED, ACCOMMODATIVE POLICY/LOW INTEREST RATES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE LABOR MARKET STRENGTHENS.

The bottom line, Bernie made Greenspan and Greenspeak proud by really pulling a hood-wink with "Plausible Deniability"

QE and unemployment are no longer linked, this lets them exit QE as soon as they want, now accommodative policy meaning low interest rates is linked with the unemployment situation.

I don't know how long it will take the market to put this together, but I think it's significant and I think I need to be watching to see how the market is taking this.

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