Last Minute F_O_M_C Post

I wish I had more time to look at these charts because a lot made very interesting things changed right around that 10:30 area when stocks shot up higher only to see intraday distribution and move lower again.

Keep in mind the knee jerk effect when looking at these charts, that is the initial move in the market after an F_O_M_C announcement tends to be very volatile, but wrong and typically reverses within a few hours to a couple of days.

Generally speaking, if the market is expecting a taper sooner than later or an end to QE sooner than later, we'd expect to see Gold moving down, bonds moving down, yields moving up and the $USD moving up.

There are interesting differences between the short term charts and the longer term charts and many around that 10:30 mark this morning, keeping in mind what some have said about a possible leak and what I have said about the knee jerk effect.

I'll never be able to post these in time and let you look at them in time.

However as we know Credit (HYG) dropped off today, not good for the market generally, but that 5 min short term (days/weeks maybe) is still positive, it's possible it hasn't had enough time to let that divergence fall apart like the shorter ones have. The longer term charts in HYG are solidly negative.

As for Gold, the 1 min chart right now is seeing a pretty darn strong positive divergence, but anything in the more serious timeframe of 30-60 mins is solidly negative. The positive 1 min in gold didn't start forming until around 11 a.m. this morning.

The 30 year bond looks like it saw a positive divergence in futures also this morning.

The $USD, short term it's not doing anything exciting, the 60 min is in a raging positive divergence.

I have to get this out now, but the initial signs , many of which started around 10:30 this morning show what looks like a F_O_M_C "Do nothing" policy statement as the initial reaction, followed by a realization that something wicked comes this way sooner than later as far as QE.

I know that''s not as easy to understand as I'd like it to be, but there were several changes very quickly this morning, I DON'T THINK THERE'S ENOGUH ACCUMULATION OR DISTRIBUTION ON THESE SHORT TERM SIGNALS TO MEAN ANYTHING MORE THAN A KNEE JERK REACTION.

ALSO THE INDEX FUTURES ON 5 MIN CHARTS HAVE BECOME MORE NEGATIVE, WHILE THE RUSSELL 2000 1 MIN FUTURES IS MORE POSITIVE, AGAIN TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE AN INITIAL POSITIVE KNEE JERK FOLLOWED BY SOMETHING TOTALLY DIFFERENT.