Wednesday, July 31, 2013

GDP Prints on the + Side

So far the Index futures haven't reacted much to the strong beat in Q2 GDP at 1.7 vs consensus of 1. Qi GDP was revised down to the worst miss in over 2 years from 1.8 to 1.1, today the BEA also revises all GDP data back to 1929, rewriting economic history as it were.

The F_O_M_C meets today and then the policy announcement this afternoon with NO press conference so we'll have to wait until Aug. 21 for the minutes to see what was said.

So far stocks aren't acting like anything has happened, gold is down which means the PM market is acting like the taper is coming, but gold has been sliding for several hours since before GDP came out. The USD is probably the most notable mark of market sentiment leaning toward a sooner than later taper.

USDX after the GDP print.

The only other thing I see is in the 5 min area of Index futures...
1 min charts are noise, the 5 min chart looks pretty negative and getting a bit worse.

I suspect we won't see much until we get a look at leading indicators, but I also suspect the market will be largely in wait and see mode pre-F_O_M_C, however we have caught some "apparent" leaks before so I'll be on the lookout for a hint before the statement.

Remember to Beware the Knee-Jerk reaction today.

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