Friday, July 19, 2013

Adding to Or Opening FAZ Long?

As far as timing for options like XLF puts I want to be right on the money, as far as equity positions that have much less draw down and a market that looks this bad, I want to make sure I have enough exposure in case we get a black swan even between now and Monday's open.

This is why I'd be very seriously considering opening a FAZ long position or perhaps SKF long if you are not comfortable with that much leverage (3x vs 2x bear financials).

I'll tell you straight up, there's a PERFECT head fake spot for FAZ so if I was opening a new position I'd plan my risk management so this is a phased in position allowing room to add on a head fake (stop run) move. 

You have to decide whether this is right for you, you know what I think about the market, but Financials have also been the best performer this week as of yesterday and I think a lot of that was to distribute/sell short.

***The other scenario is, you'll know exactly where the head fake move would be, you know that because of the range it is highly probable and you know that 80% of all reversals see some kind of head fake move just before they reverse. If you don't understand why, check out my 2 linked articles on the member's site, "Understanding the Head-Fake Move".


 Intraday trend shows straight accumulation, but I could have told you that by the price action alone. The range is so visible and clean that it makes for a huge target to shakeout shorts as retail has been bearish the last couple of days.

A shakeout is high probability, you just need to weight that against how you feel about the ,market and what kind of exposure you have and where.

I do think a phased in position in 2 parts is ideal, one now, i on the head fake move.

10 min intraday shows some large funds flowing in this range.

15 min overall trend, very positive, the head fake is below the yellow line around the $27.80 and below area, definitely below.

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