Friday, July 19, 2013

Psychology-ACTION, The Hard Part... Short Strength, Sit Tight

Like I said, emotionally this is the hard part, literally it is the lowest risk, best entry.

I think you have to short strength here, even if you have to wait a couple of days for it to pay off, it could pay off in hours, we're just at that point.

To help you visualize and give some confidence, I'll use the Q's, they represent the short term problem and blessing at the same time, but if we step away from looking at the market on a i min chart, the big picture is pretty clear. The QQQ Aug Put just opened a few days ago is up about +45% right now, usually I'd take that in a minute and may still if we get some sharp downside momentum and other things line up, but for now, I'm doing something I rarely do and letting that Put position sit as I can see the bigger picture and as I said, hear the sound of water going over the falls.

 QQQ 30 min, We've established the long term, important charts and the trend is broken, it's not really coming back from this.

QQQ 15 min chart shows if there's any upside volatility, it's not going far.

 Now back to the QQQ 1 min, it's positive and a flat range which suggests accumulation (on a 1 min chart of course ) which suggests higher prices are possible if not probable, which is  the gift to short in to.

It's also the psychologically difficult part, BUT WE GET PAID TO TAKE RISKS, MITIGATING THE RISKS  AND USING TOOLS TO INCREASE OUR PROBABILITIES IS WHAT SEPARATES US FROM GAMBLERS.

QQQ 2 min is seeing that positive too.

It has even migrated to the 3 min.

 The QQQ 5 min chart kind of shows the story in one chart, a slight positive intraday (short term) in a huge leading negative-bigger picture.

 HYG-Credit seems to be showing that it is being used short term to try to help the market, 1 min positive.

2 min positive.

at 3 min in line, so they aren't doing too much, just the bare minimum.

 HYG 5 min - clearly broken

HYG 10 min, clearly broken

 HYG 30 min, NOT COMING BACK.

Back to the QQQ...

You saw the short term QQQ and HYG trying to help, that may give us some strength to short in to, but we don't know EXACTLY  when that ends, we have to weight the short term vs the larger picture and decide how much risk are we willing to accept for the big picture.

I established the broken QQQ charts in the higher timeframes, at 10 mins, does the Nasdaq really look like any intraday or short term bounce has a snow ball's chance in hell of changing or continuing the trend (to the upside)?


No comments: